The polls had written him off; the ballot box brought him back. On Sunday 25 October, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won the second round of Brazil’s presidential election with 51.79% of the vote, against 48.21% for conservative senator Flávio Bolsonaro, eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. He thus secures an unprecedented fourth term at the head of Latin America’s largest country, on the eve of his 81st birthday, which he celebrates on Tuesday 27 October.
A spectacular comeback
Yet the script seemed to be written in advance. In the first round, three weeks earlier, Flávio Bolsonaro had defied expectations by coming first with 47.03% of the vote, against 45.16% for the incumbent. On the eve of the run-off, two pollsters, Datafolha and Quaest, still credited the right-wing candidate with 51% of voting intentions.
In the end, Lula collected just over 64.2 million votes, against around 59.8 million for his opponent, a margin of about 4.4 million votes. Election night was an emotional rollercoaster: at the start of the count Flávio Bolsonaro was ahead, before the trend reversed.
Two extra hours of voting, and a challenge
The day was disrupted by severe storms and public transport failures. A judge therefore decided to keep polling stations open for two extra hours. It is on this decision that Flávio Bolsonaro is relying to refuse to concede defeat and to announce that he will seek the annulment of the election.
Analysts, however, consider annulment highly unlikely: the margin is clear, and Flávio Bolsonaro’s own camp had also called for voting to be extended because of the rain in the south of the country.
A symbol for the Latin American left
This victory allows the left to stay in power in Brazil at a time when the right is gaining ground across the continent. It also plays out in a country that remains deeply divided: former president Jair Bolsonaro was convicted of attempting a coup, and it was his son who carried his camp’s colours. Already during his previous term, which began in 2023, Lula had promised to reconcile the country. The coming weeks will show whether the challenge stays in the courts or spills onto the streets.
Sources : RTBF, France 24, Radio-Canada, Wikipedia
Photo: Senado Federal / CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons
