Israelis go to the polls on Tuesday 27 October for a decisive general election. It is the first vote held since Hamas’s attack of 7 October 2023, which triggered the war in Gaza and opened other fronts in the region. And, unusually, it is also an election being held on its legal date: the first since 1988 without an early vote.
A referendum on Netanyahu
Benjamin Netanyahu, the longest-serving prime minister in Israel’s history, is seeking a new term at the head of Likud. Still facing a corruption trial that has been postponed several times, he is defending his security record before a public worn out by years of war.
His main rival is Gadi Eisenkot, a former army chief of staff and ex-member of the war cabinet, who founded the Yashar party. He is promising, among other things, a national commission of inquiry into the failures of 7 October, more troops for the army and limits on reserve duty.
Very tight… and very divergent polls
The latest surveys point to a neck-and-neck race. According to the polling average, Likud and Yashar are each hovering around 22 of the 120 seats. But pollsters differ sharply: on 23 October Channel 12 gave Yashar 23 seats against 21 for Likud, while right-leaning Channel 14 credited Likud with 30 seats against 20 for Yashar. The joint list of Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid is in third place.
Above all, no bloc appears able to reach the 61-seat majority on its own. The ultra-Orthodox parties, whose exemption from military service deeply divides the country, and the Arab parties could weigh heavily in the final arithmetic.
What next?
The first results are expected overnight. But in Israel, the vote is often only the beginning: forming a coalition can take weeks. The outcome will also shape Israeli policy in the Middle East, from Gaza to Iran, and the weight of the far right in the next government. We will follow the results.
Sources : Africanews, i24NEWS, Democrata, The State of Israel (aggregator), i24NEWS, Times of Israel
Photo: Gary Todd from Xinzheng, China / CC0, via Wikimedia Commons
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